GCC Real Estate Supply Set to Reach 7.28m Homes, 42.4m sqm Offices by 2030

The GCC real estate market is entering a new phase of structured growth, with both residential and commercial supply expected to expand significantly over the next five years, according to Alpen Capital’s inaugural GCC Real Estate Industry Report.

The report projects that total housing stock across the GCC will rise from approximately 6.26 million units in 2025 to 7.28 million units by 2030, supported by sustained population growth, economic diversification programmes and large-scale urban development initiatives. Over the same period, total office stock is forecast to increase from 33.3 million square metres to 42.4 million square metres, with more than 65 percent of the upcoming pipeline concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Residential Supply Led by Saudi Arabia and UAE

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to account for the majority of new housing supply. In Saudi Arabia, residential stock is projected to grow by 499,000 units between 2025 and 2030, reaching 3.45 million units by the end of the decade. Growth will be driven primarily by giga projects and master-planned communities in Riyadh and Jeddah.

In the UAE, housing stock is expected to increase by 390,000 units to reach 1.51 million units by 2030. New supply will be focused on apartment-led mixed-use developments in Dubai, alongside premium villas and waterfront communities in Abu Dhabi.

The real estate landscape of the GCC has undergone significant transformation driven by national agendas to diversify and build a resilient economy. Dubai has led this transformation, establishing itself as a global metropolis fuelled by foreign ownership, massive infrastructure investments and ambitious strategies,The real estate landscape of the GCC has undergone significant transformation driven by national agendas to diversify and build a resilient economy. Dubai has led this transformation, establishing itself as a global metropolis fuelled by foreign ownership, massive infrastructure investments and ambitious strategies,

said Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director, Alpen Capital.

Over the next few years, the region’s real estate industry is expected to witness a steady supply across the residential, commercial, hospitality and retail segments, largely supported by continued government spending and investments in building a world-class infrastructure. Moreover, a conducive regulatory environment, high per capita incomes and strong demographic fundamentals will further support the advancement of the GCC’s real estate industry,Over the next few years, the region’s real estate industry is expected to witness a steady supply across the residential, commercial, hospitality and retail segments, largely supported by continued government spending and investments in building a world-class infrastructure. Moreover, a conducive regulatory environment, high per capita incomes and strong demographic fundamentals will further support the advancement of the GCC’s real estate industry,

Ahmad said.

The report highlights a shift toward more disciplined development, with large-scale projects phased strategically and aligned more closely with demand fundamentals.

Over the coming years, we expect supply–demand dynamics across the GCC to become more balanced. Large-scale developments are being phased more strategically, with a clear emphasis on quality, mixed-use formats, and demand-led execution. We are witnessing that development trends are shifting towards master-planned, sustainable, and technology-enabled communities focused on long-term liveability. While certain sub-markets may experience short-term oversupply pressures, well-located and high-quality projects are likely to continue seeing strong absorption and pricing support. Going forward, as major development zones reach operational maturity, investors will have a broad base of high-quality assets maintaining interest from both regional and international buyers,

said Sharmin Karanjia, Executive Director, Alpen Capital. Read more: Dubai Residential Sales Hit $149bn as Market Enters Maturity Phase, Report

Office Market Expansion

Commercial supply across the GCC is forecast to expand significantly by 2030. In Saudi Arabia, office stock is expected to increase from 7.0 million square metres to 13.2 million square metres, with major additions in Riyadh, including New Murabba and King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD), alongside selective developments in Jeddah such as Jeddah Gate.

In the UAE, office supply is projected to grow by approximately 910,000 square metres, focused on premium, sustainable and lifestyle-oriented districts. Other GCC markets are expected to adopt a more controlled expansion strategy through smart and mixed-use business hubs. Read more: Dubai office sales transactions hit $844M record - Cavendish Maxwell

Hospitality and Retail Growth

Hotel room supply across the GCC is anticipated to increase from 345,400 rooms in 2025 to 409,900 rooms by 2030. Saudi Arabia is expected to lead growth, driven by rising international arrivals, aviation expansion, mega events and destination-led tourism developments. The report notes a broader shift toward stable, yield-generating formats, supported by improved occupancy rates and higher room yields.

Retail gross leasable area (GLA) is projected to grow from 22.8 million square metres to 27.2 million square metres by 2030. Developers are increasingly prioritising experiential retail concepts, integrating entertainment, dining and lifestyle components to sustain footfall amid rising e-commerce penetration. Growth is expected to be led by flagship malls and mixed-use destinations in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Read more: Sheikh Hamdan Launches Dubai Hotel Incentive Scheme to Boost Development

Structural Drivers and Emerging Trends

Alpen Capital notes that high disposable incomes, expatriate inflows and favourable tax environments continue to underpin demand. Government investment in infrastructure, logistics and urban systems is unlocking new development corridors and enhancing asset viability.

At the same time, the report cautions that supply pipelines remain sensitive to oil price cycles, public spending patterns and global macroeconomic conditions. Elevated financing costs and rising insurance premiums linked to climate risks may also affect project feasibility and execution strategies.

Sustainability requirements are increasingly standard across the GCC, while green finance instruments, including green bonds and sukuks, are gaining traction. The report also highlights growing adoption of PropTech and property tokenisation frameworks to enhance transparency and market access.

Overall, the GCC real estate market is expected to enter a more disciplined, demand-aligned expansion phase through 2030, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE continuing to anchor regional growth across residential, commercial, hospitality and retail segments.